It all comes down to this. It’s the final weekend of the 2017 MLS regular season and Real Salt Lake is vying for the club’s ninth playoff appearance in the last 10 seasons. To get in will take a confluence of events that may, on the surface, seem unlikely. However, a deeper dive into the five different scenarios that would see RSL through to the postseason shows it to be much more likely than it would appear.
First, let’s examine all of the possible results. With Real Salt Lake, FC Dallas and the San Jose Earthquakes doing battle over one spot in the Western Conference playoffs, there are 27 possible iterations of outcomes from the weekend. All three clubs are playing at home – Real Salt Lake against Sporting Kansas City, San Jose against Minnesota United and Dallas against the LA Galaxy. Of those 27 potential result combinations, San Jose would advance in 11 scenarios, Dallas would advance in 11 scenarios and Real Salt Lake would go through in five different circumstances.
For RSL to make the postseason, the Claret-and-Cobalt would need to win AND have both San Jose and Dallas lose or draw in their matches. OR if RSL draws with Kansas City AND both San Jose and Dallas lose, RSL will advance. Any other combination of results will see RSL on the outside looking in when the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs kick off mid-week next week.
Now – the reasons to be optimistic about those results.
Real Salt Lake is 8-4-4 at home this season and 8-3-3 at Rio Tinto Stadium since Mike Petke took over as Head Coach. That includes four straight home wins and a 4-0-3 record in the last seven at home.
Meanwhile, Sporting Kansas City is just 2-7-7 away from home this year, including an 0-3-4 mark in the last seven away matches and an 0-2-2 record in the last four matches, overall.
At the same time, Dallas has just one win since July 22 (1-7-6) and is 1-1-4 at home in that stretch. All the while, the Galaxy is 1-0-2 in its last three matches and has the second-most road wins in the West at 5-8-3.
In the other matchup, San Jose is just 1-2-1 in its last four matches while Minnesota is 3-2-1 in the last six matches.
In short, when you are at the RioT or at home watching Sunday’s match against Sporting Kansas City, keep an eye peeled to the other two important matches. It’s going to be a wild final weekend.