Real Salt Lake did well to start the Western Conference Championship series on the right foot, scoring four-straight goals en route to beating the Portland Timbers 4-2 at Rio Tinto Stadium on Sunday night.
We all know that the Claret-and-Cobalt’s two-goal advantage heading into the series’ second leg at JELD-WEN Field next Sunday, Nov. 24 is a big leg-up, even against a team as tough as the Timbers. Just how big of an advantage is that two-goal lead? Let’s take a historical look:
Since MLS shifted away from the best-of-three series and began using the two-legged aggregate goal format in 2003, a team has taken a two-goal aggregate lead into a series’ second leg nine times. The team with the two-goal advantage has advanced to the next round seven of those nine times, losing the two-goal lead and falling out of the playoffs on two occasions.
Teams that take a two-goal lead in the first leg at home and then play the second leg on the road have advanced to the next round three times and lost the series twice.
Interestingly, San Jose was involved in both of the series’ in which the team with a two-goal lead after the first leg was eliminated from the playoffs. The Quakes made the first such comeback in 2003, losing the first leg 2-0 at LA before moving onto the next round with an improbable 5-2 win over the Galaxy after extra time. San Jose wasn’t so lucky the next year, taking a 2-0 first leg lead over Kansas City before dropping the series following a 3-2 loss at the Wizards in the decisive second leg.
History is clearly on RSL’s side. Of course, that doesn’t mean much with the second leg in Portland, where the Timbers have gone a sterling 14-1-5 in MLS regular season, MLS Cup Playoff and U.S. Open Cup action this year. We’ll see how it plays out at JELD-WEN Field in 10 days’ time.